Uses both traditional moving averages (SMA, EMA) and also averages which are designed to follow changes in price more closely (Hull, Arnaud Legoux). Saqib Iqbal is a market analyst, prop fund trader and mentor, serving the industry with his analysis and educational content since 2011. The author has great exposure to different financial markets and institutions. He’s well-known for his day trading reviews and multiple timeframe analysis.
Governors Christopher Waller and Michelle Bowman could vote in favor of a 25 basis points rate reduction. In case the policy statement shows that there were other policymakers who voted for a rate cut, the USD could come under selling pressure. According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 63% probability of a rate cut in September, suggesting that the USD faces a two-way risk heading into the event. In conclusion, while the analysis provides a structured outlook on the asset’s potential price movements, it is essential to remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable. Conducting thorough research and staying informed about market trends and economic indicators is crucial for making informed investment decisions.
The US has signed a trade deal with the EU, finally easing concerns about a 30% tariff set to take effect next month. Moreover, the deal came at the right time since the August 1 deadline is approaching. Initially, top officials were going for a zero-tariff agreement. The EUR/USD forecast shows a sudden decline in the euro after a trade deal between the US and the European Union.
On the other hand, investors could refrain from taking large positions if the GDP data come in near the market consensus. The author and FXStreet are not registered investment advisors and nothing in this article is intended to be investment advice. Latest analytical reviews, forecasts and opinions of seasoned experts. Daily analysis of major currency pairs, commodities, cryptocurrencies.
EUR/USD Forecast: Sharp Fall After Initial US-EU Trade Optimism
- For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote).
- It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008.
- 68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider.
- In conclusion, while the analysis provides a structured outlook on the asset’s potential price movements, it is essential to remember that financial markets are inherently unpredictable.
- The Bank of Canada kept its key rate unchanged at 2.75% for the fourth consecutive meeting.
- After the Fed decided to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged following its July meeting, the US Dollar found additional legs across the FX board.
This reading came in better than the market expectation of 0.2% but failed to boost the Euro. Technicals are calculated and updated every 20 minutes during the trading day using delayed market data. Meanwhile, traders are preparing for a packed week with the FOMC policy meeting and the US nonfarm payrolls report. SPONSORED Discover the top brokers for trading EUR/USD in 2025. Our list features brokers with competitive spreads, fast execution, and powerful platforms. Whether you’re a beginner or an expert, find the right partner to navigate the dynamic Forex market.
How often does the Fed hold monetary policy meetings?
ADP Employment Change for July and the second-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data will be featured in the US economic calendar. Markets expect private sector payrolls to rise by 78,000 following the 33,000 decline reported in June. The GDP is forecast to expand at an annual rate of 2.4% after the 0.5% contraction recorded in the first quarter. A significant negative surprise in the GDP, with a reading below 1%, could weigh on the USD with the immediate reaction.
Recently, the USD/EUR has shown a slight recovery from its previous lows, driven by mixed economic data from both the US and Eurozone. The Eurozone’s GDP growth rates are stable, but not robust, while the US GDP shows signs of recovery, which could strengthen the USD. Market participants are cautiously optimistic, with investor sentiment leaning towards a stable outlook for the USD/EUR. Opportunities for growth are present if the US economy continues to outperform expectations, but risks include potential geopolitical tensions and economic slowdowns in Europe.
Bank of Japan set to keep rates unchanged amid political instability, US-Japan trade deal
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the Euro from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent EUR (base)/USD (quote). The table below shows the percentage change of Euro (EUR) against listed major currencies this week.
- Market participants do not expect any key releases from the US or the Eurozone.
- The asset appears fairly priced given the current economic conditions, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation detected.
- The GDP is forecast to expand at an annual rate of 2.4% after the 0.5% contraction recorded in the first quarter.
- According to the CME FedWatch Tool, markets are currently pricing in about a 63% probability of a rate cut in September, suggesting that the USD faces a two-way risk heading into the event.
- Markets will closely scrutinize the BoJ policy statement and the updated projections for hints on the timing of the next rate hike.
Chair Jerome Powell refused to give up to President Trump’s pressures, and reiterated data will lead the central bank’s way. Investing $1,000 in USD/EUR under different market scenarios can yield varying returns. In a Bullish Breakout scenario, a 5% price increase could raise the investment to approximately $1,050.
Example Analysis
The asset appears fairly priced given the current economic conditions, with no significant overvaluation or undervaluation detected. However, the market remains sensitive to economic data euro dolar analiz releases and central bank decisions, which could sway the asset’s valuation. Later in the day, the Fed is widely anticipated to leave the policy rate unchanged at the range of 4.25%-4.5%.
The US Dollar (USD) preserved its strength on Tuesday and forced EUR/USD to stay on the back foot. In the second half of the day, mixed macroeconomic data releases from the US limited the USD’s gains and helped the pair find support. The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index improved to 97.2 in July from 95.2 in June. On a negative note, JOLTS Job Openings declined to 7.43 million in June from 7.77 in May, falling short of the market expectation of 7.55. Economies.com provides the latest technical analysis of the EUR/USD (Euro Dollar). You may find the analysis on a daily basis with forecasts for the global daily trend.
68% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading CFDs with this provider. You should consider whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money. In extreme situations, the Federal Reserve may resort to a policy named Quantitative Easing (QE). QE is the process by which the Fed substantially increases the flow of credit in a stuck financial system.It is a non-standard policy measure used during crises or when inflation is extremely low.
It was the Fed’s weapon of choice during the Great Financial Crisis in 2008. It involves the Fed printing more Dollars and using them to buy high grade bonds from financial institutions. Meanwhile, the data from Germany showed earlier in the day that the GDP expanded at an annual rate of 0.4% in the second quarter.